UKNDA COMMENTARY No.13
STRATEGIC DEFENCE & SECURITY REVIEW 2015: ONE YEAR ON
By Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon (Co-authors: Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, Antony Hichens and Air Commodore Andrew Lambert)
"It is hard to see SDSR15 today as any more than a wish list whose funding is most likely to be addressed, if at all, by a new government after 2020. In these circumstances, the honest thing to do is to come clean that the world is far more dangerous than anticipated, and that this well considered review needs full funding now as a first step in meeting the challenges we face."
UKNDA COMMENTARY No.12
National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review 2015: An Appraisal
Prepared by the following members of the UKNDA Advisory Council: Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon, General Sir Michael Rose, Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, Air Vice-Marshal Andrew L Roberts, Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Antony Hichens and Allen Sykes.
UKNDA COMMENTARY No.11
A Guide to Evaluating SDSR 2015
By Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon, General Sir Michael Rose
and Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham
There is no more important duty of government than to provide adequate defence and security, a duty which should have the first call on government funds. It is from this perspective that this autumn’s Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR15) should be judged.
“The world is more dangerous and unstable than at any time
since the end of the Cold War.”
So says the HCDC report of 17 March this year. If this is the case, and the evidence is surely overwhelming, then a budget-led approach to the SDSR is unacceptable and dangerous. The approach must be strategic and risk-based, and determine the military capabilities required to tackle both existing threats and those which may unpredictably arise in the unstable world in which we live.
“The world is more dangerous and unstable than at any time
since the end of the Cold War.”
So says the HCDC report of 17 March this year. If this is the case, and the evidence is surely overwhelming, then a budget-led approach to the SDSR is unacceptable and dangerous. The approach must be strategic and risk-based, and determine the military capabilities required to tackle both existing threats and those which may unpredictably arise in the unstable world in which we live.
UKNDA Commentary 10
"The Strategic Defence and Security Review
SDSR15 – STRATEGIC OR SUPERFICIAL?"
By Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Professor Andrew Roberts and Allen Sykes
Foreword by Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon
It is not an exaggeration to suggest that this year’s Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) is the most important in four decades.
In terms of numbers of surface fleet combatants, combat aircraft and Army manpower, the Armed Forces of the United Kingdom are at their lowest levels since the 1920s; moreover, whole capabilities are missing and we have been unable to perform certain crucial military functions. And all this has occurred in the face of a world that is widely recognised as increasingly dangerous.
Furthermore, the period of austerity which has affected Western nations – and much of the world – has brought into sharp relief the imbalance between the United States contribution to NATO’s collective defences and that of America’s European partners.
Britain’s Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, in his recent blog (15th June), indicated that the Government would conduct a thorough, analytical, transparent and consultative SDSR; if so this will be in contrast to the review undertaken in 2010. The nation must hold the Defence Secretary to his promise.
In this paper, the authors suggest a number of steps that should accompany the work; if followed they would undoubtedly give confidence to the nation, the Armed Forces and our allies that SDSR 15 was indeed on track to be both credible and responsive to our security needs. Crucially, it would send a powerful signal of intent to those who may wish us harm.
UKNDA COMMENTARY No.9
National Security – A Challenge for the PM
By Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Professor Andrew Roberts and Allen Sykes
Three steps are called for. First, the Government should commit to the minimum NATO defence target of 2% of GDP for the life of this Parliament and ring-fence it. It should go further and commit to whatever additional funding SDSR15 then shows to be necessary for adequate defence and the discharge of our Alliance responsibilities.
Second, SDSR15 should be thorough, neither rushed nor “light touch”. It must have the resources to consider the nation’s defence and security needs unconstrained.
Third, we should adopt the American practice whereby the Chiefs of Staff are free to give their views publicly to Parliament so that MPs and the public can be reassured of the adequacy of defence provision.
By Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Professor Andrew Roberts and Allen Sykes
Three steps are called for. First, the Government should commit to the minimum NATO defence target of 2% of GDP for the life of this Parliament and ring-fence it. It should go further and commit to whatever additional funding SDSR15 then shows to be necessary for adequate defence and the discharge of our Alliance responsibilities.
Second, SDSR15 should be thorough, neither rushed nor “light touch”. It must have the resources to consider the nation’s defence and security needs unconstrained.
Third, we should adopt the American practice whereby the Chiefs of Staff are free to give their views publicly to Parliament so that MPs and the public can be reassured of the adequacy of defence provision.
UKNDA COMMENTARY No.8
DEFENCE
What the Manifestos Should Say
By Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Dr Andrew Roberts and Allen Sykes
The next Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) is not planned until after the May general election so political parties may choose to sideline defence, while promising ever more generous sums for health, education, welfare and foreign aid, all while reducing the £90billion annual deficit. This could well result in ill-considered cuts to defence without any serious public or Parliamentary discussion. This neglect has been strongly condemned in numerous editorials and articles, in particular by Con Coughlin (1) and the former Conservative and Labour Defence Ministers, Sir Peter Luff and Bob Ainsworth.(2)
UKNDA COMMENTARY No.7
Who Will Speak for Defence and Security?
By Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon, Dr Andrew Roberts and Vice Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham
In the closing months of 2014, Boris Johnson, in his Residents’ Survey for the Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, posed the question – “Which issues are most important for the country as a whole?” Fifteen subjects were offered for consideration – not one mentioned Defence or Security, despite the threatening global scene.
An ‘Ed Miliband moment’? Sadly, no. It is more likely a reflection of a political generation, a number of whom are quick to voice their admiration for the Armed Forces when the cameras are on them, but at root have little concern for military matters. There is an election due in May. The major parties are competing in the great NHS give-away whilst showing every sign of wishing to bury Defence until well after the election, using the expected Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR-15) as the convenient touchstone for evasion.
An ‘Ed Miliband moment’? Sadly, no. It is more likely a reflection of a political generation, a number of whom are quick to voice their admiration for the Armed Forces when the cameras are on them, but at root have little concern for military matters. There is an election due in May. The major parties are competing in the great NHS give-away whilst showing every sign of wishing to bury Defence until well after the election, using the expected Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR-15) as the convenient touchstone for evasion.
UKNDA Commentary 6
UK Maritime Capability - The Missing Element
By Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham and Air Vice-Marshal Andrew L. Roberts
UK Maritime Capability - The Missing Element
By Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham and Air Vice-Marshal Andrew L. Roberts
Introduction
Following the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR 10), the planned Nimrod MRA4 fleet was scrapped. Four years later, it is clear that this is a major loss of capability. At a time when our maritime interests are so obviously of higher profile, the need for a Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) is now a topic for Government attention and brought into sharper focus by the recent events surrounding the disappearance of Flight MH370, in which a very large area of the Indian Ocean needed to be searched. A variety of MPA from several nations participated in the search, led by the Australians. Britain could not now undertake such a mission were a similar tragedy to occur in UK waters.
Ships, submarines, helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft each have their own strengths and weaknesses. Experience strongly suggests that modern maritime warfare, especially ASW, is best undertaken using a ‘layered approach’ with a mix of platforms. Even with the latest technology, this is likely to continue to be the case. There is no cheap panacea. MOD has now acknowledged (1) that cancellation of the Nimrod MRA4 has resulted in a significant capability gap. Because of the need for a combination of rapid response and reach, we believe that, at least in the short and medium term, this gap can be filled only by airborne platforms. As SDSR 15 approaches, it is timely to review the options likely to be available for filling the gap.
UKNDA Commentary 5
DANGERS OF DENIAL
“Denial is a psychological defence mechanism in which confrontation with a personal problem or with reality is avoided by denying the existence of the problem or reality.”
By Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon, Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Allen Sykes and Antony Hichens, authors of papers referred to throughout this work.
DANGERS OF DENIAL
“Denial is a psychological defence mechanism in which confrontation with a personal problem or with reality is avoided by denying the existence of the problem or reality.”
By Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon, Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, Air Commodore Andrew Lambert, Allen Sykes and Antony Hichens, authors of papers referred to throughout this work.
UKNDA Commentary 4
DIMINISHED CAPABILITIES AND INCREASED RESPONSIBILITIES
Time for an objective defence review
By Antony Hichens, Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon and Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham.
DIMINISHED CAPABILITIES AND INCREASED RESPONSIBILITIES
Time for an objective defence review
By Antony Hichens, Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon and Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham.