UKRAINE: A WAKE-UP CALL
"We should be clear; our present theory of deterrence has, in this vital case, failed and may no longer be fit for purpose. Its credibility in Cold War times rested on Allied ability to respond to attack from the Soviet Union at a variety of levels, from a strong foundation of conventional capability. Key to its success was a demonstrable means to match the aggression and where necessary escalate. It included nuclear capabilities at modest level of Artillery-Fired Atomic Projectiles, through Intermediate Range and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. Much thought was given to the conduct of a conflict involving attack from the Soviet Union which was examined regularly by NATO governments and supporting military staff in carefully conducted exercises.
Today, NATO’s conventional capabilities do not provide that range of options to its members, a consequence of European Defence Budgets being closer to 1% of GDP than the 3% deemed a minimum previously. Even in the UK it is not clear that we are spending 2% of GDP on genuine defence. Moreover, our GDP is forecast to decline next year and we are facing inflation forecast at 10%. The 2021 Integrated Review, whatever its merits or demerits, is wholly unaffordable on this basis. This is a major weakness apparent to Putin and surely to our own military who are charged with conducting a strategy undermined by years of inattention."
Air Chief Marshal Sir Michael Graydon and Vice-Admiral Sir Jeremy Blackham, writing in Volume 4 of the Defence UK Journal Pro Patria.
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